Sewitch Etcetera Corporation

This is a once-in-a-century field study. So many elements are being tested. The virus’ hypothesis is that it can procreate in the population of the human species at the balanced rate of transmission and mortality that ensures it will survive. We know how to eradicate the disease. We just don’t have the collective will to do what’s necessary. It would require every human being to stay in one place for two weeks or until they recover, without any chance of transmission to even one other human being outside of their immediate household. If we did that, everybody who already had it would recover or not. No more virus.

The virus knows this, and therefore is trying to mutate as it goes along so that its mortality rate is low enough to prevent the human population from wanting to stay in one place for two weeks. If the mortality rate was 30%, even with treatment, the world’s leaders would have a much higher motivation to attempt to freeze movement and therefore contact completely. But if the mortality rate, and just as important, the hospitalization rate, is low enough, then humans might relax their vigilance sufficiently to allow the virus to continue replicating at a sustainable level. The virus is aiming for that sweet spot.

Bill Ackman, hedge fund manager and oft-times gambler betting on the downside, says he’s an optimist.  While he exhorts the President and our national leaders to shut the country down for a month.  If we don’t, he says, the America we love and know will be forever changed.

I think the 30 day shutdown is probably the right thing to do, mind you, because our country is way behind the curve in testing, isolating and treating capabilities.  And I agree with Mr. Bill that our economy can probably weather a one month pause.  Probably more.

But even if the powers that be don’t follow his advice (though counties and states will probably lead ahead of the federal government, like they have been for a while), this country is made of stronger fabric at its core.

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